A look inside this market full with the new opportunities, social and geopolitical instabilities and under the supremacy and the watchful eye of China.
Article written by Sara Schirru for The Young Economist.
Africa, a continent of 54 states, is a territory limited mainly by the sea with an extension of 29,205,390 sq km.
But what riches are hidden within those millions of square kilometers, which guarantee it the third podium for the largest continent?
It is difficult to summarize in a few lines the immense wealth of resources that it is able to offer, however we cannot fail to underline how it is the source not only of mineral resources such as gold, iron, diamonds, copper, bauxite but also energy resources such as oil, coal, uranium.
Unfortunately it happens that most African countries cannot take advantage of the fruits of these resources, as the wealth goes into the hands of a few, which is directly held by them or redistributed to foreign countries, thus losing the immense competitive advantage that the whole continent could have. It should not be forgotten that excessive colonialism has not only removed political, religious and linguistic diversity in individual African countries (causing conflicts of all kinds), but has then transplanted the seeds of their resources in the same Western countries.
Thus the Continent splits in two: on the one hand it represents one of the least competitive territories in the world and on the other one of the most sought-after earning destinations
With independence, Africa was once again able to walk partly on its own legs, but without ever being able to participate in a marathon. However, the scenario could change rapidly.
In fact, while Europe is undergoing a slow and continuous demographic collapse, Africa is invaded by a huge population growth. According to UN estimates, when in 2100 the population will become approximately 11 billion, the African component will be 4.3 billion (4 out of 10 world inhabitants will be Africans).
In this context, China fits perfectly and has been perceiving Africa for a long time
possible nectar of the gods.
In fact, China has invested heavily in Africa over the past 20 years, building railways, airports, hospitals, ports and other infrastructure. Also, let's not forget the mining plants.
33% of African structures were built by the Chinese and 21% directly funded by Chinese investments.
The AGI (Agenzia Giornalistica Italia) states: "According to the General Administration of Customs in Beijing, the total bilateral trade between the African continent and China in 2021 reached 254.3 billion dollars, an increase of 35.3 % every year. Africa exported $ 105.9 billion worth of goods to China, an increase of 43.7% year on year. "
The great world power operates not only on a large scale, but also in the private sector through small-medium enterprises, effectively contributing to greater economic growth and greater industrialization.
According to a study published by the China-Africa Business Council entitled "Market Power and the Role of the Private Sector: Report on Chinese Investments in Africa", investments on the African continent of China are estimated to have exceeded $ 56 billion in 2020.
Irene Yaun Sun, author of the book "The Next Factory of the World, How Chinese Investment Is Reshaping Africa" ​​(2017) connects the African-Chinese landscape to the Flying Geese theory "(ducks flying), the mechanism of which will allow the passage from the current factory in the world (China) to the next (Africa).
However, China's true intentions and prospects are still partly hidden.
In this regard, just think of the aura of mystery surrounding Chinese loans destined for Africa. This mystery is materialized not only in the secrecy of relations between China and Africa but also in the alleged opportunistic nature of China at the basis of the nature of the contracts themselves. According to this assumption, the contracts made have interest rates and unknown clauses, so then in the event of non-payment, China requisitions the works carried out up to that moment, becoming the owner. This is the famous "debt trap"
But China may not be the only protagonist.
As a response to China's growing international expansion, Europe reaffirms its strength and presence in the international geopolitical sphere, through the allocation of investments equal to 150 billion making up a part of the Global Gateaway in order to:
-increase the green transition and the digital transition
- accelerate sustainable growth and the creation of decent jobs
-strengthen health systems
-improve education and training
Thus Europe, as a champion of justice and diplomacy, underlines through the president of the European Commission that it is opposed to explicit attempts at direct contrast with Chinese policies but at the same time with the intention not to leave a trail of debts in the third countries.
Finally, the considerations relating to this scenario by Giuseppe Mistretta, author of the book "The ways of Africa: The future of the continent between Europe, Italy, China and New Actors" are interesting. They are based on the assumption that almost all countries have only recently rediscovered Africa's potential. In fact, while Europe, but especially China, has well-established roots within the territory; the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia are trying to become the co-protagonists of this scenario. The latter countries are characterized by aggression and speed in investments and, unlike the West, they are not at all slowed down by the numerous ethical issues and the related bureaucracy.
So at this point a question may spontaneously arise: will Africa really be the future?
It is difficult to give a single answer in this regard.
This is not only because it represents a highly varied and fragmented entity economically, politically and socially, but also because history teaches us how everything can change in a short time.
The most emblematic example is precisely China, which while in the 70s it was classified as the Third World, today it is one of the largest of the world powers, and we should not be surprised if in a short time it could directly become the largest world power.
So, who knows if Mario Draghi's explicit statement (former president of the European Central Bank and current president of the Italian Council of Ministers) "Africa you are the future" could have the same true credibility and future possibility as his "Whatever it Takes "(2012), but perhaps for the moment it is better to rely on the Latin maxim" veritas filia temporis "(truth is the daughter of time).